ASA 129th Meeting - Washington, DC - 1995 May 30 .. Jun 06

1aAO5. Stochastic modeling and global warming trend extraction for ocean acoustic travel times.

Steven Bottone

Mission Res. Corp., P. O. Drawer 719, Santa Barbara, CA 93102-0719

Henry L. Gray

Wayne A. Woodward

Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas, TX 75275

A possible indication of the existence of global climate warming is a negative trend for the travel time of an acoustic pulse along a fixed long path, or paths, in the ocean over a period of many years. Statistical methods for determining whether a significant long term trend is present in a given set of time series data of acoustic propagation times have been developed and, for illustration, applied to some specific travel-time time series generated by the MASIG and GFDL ocean models. For the multiple path case, line + noise models, where the noise is modeled as a multivariate autoregressive (AR) process are considered. It is shown that the time necessary to detect the presence of a warming trend in a time series for a single path is reduced by considering time series for multiple paths. [Work sponsored by ARPA.]