## 3aUW9. Determination of ray path probabilities in stochastic media.

### Session: Wednesday Morning, December 4

### Time: 9:50

**Author: Timothy H. Ruppel**

**Location: Code 7173, Naval Res. Lab., Stennis Space Center, MS 39529**

**Abstract:**

Modeling the propagation of high-frequency sound in shallow water
environments often requires the inclusion of stochastic effects in order to
provide realistic results. The inclusion of these effects may cause the model to
be more computationally intensive and difficult to run. It is therefore
desirable to know when these effects are significant, and when they may be
ignored. One method of determining this significance is to determine the
probability that the ray paths traced by a deterministic ray tracing model will
occur in the stochastic environment; if the probability is low that the
deterministic ray path is nearly correct, then stochastic effects must be
included. This paper discusses a method for determining these ray path
probabilities given an average variability in the sound speed and a correlation
length. This paper will concentrate on spatial variations, though a procedure
for including variations with time will be discussed. [Work supported by ONR.]

ASA 132nd meeting - Hawaii, December 1996